European Social Fund in England

Equal Opportunities ESF Forecast Data For England

(NB This whole section is to be revised by ESF Evaluation Team)

Equal Opportunities Forecasts

1. Table 1 below sets out the proposed Equal Opportunities forecasts for the English Objective 3 Operational Programme (OP). The forecasts are set out both for the overall Objective 3 programme and for each individual policy field. Data limitations have meant it was not possible to produce all of the targets for every policy field. This annex gives a brief overview of how the forecasts came about.

2. The methodology used to set the forecasts is underpinned by two main factors. Where possible we have used monitoring data from the old programme to assess previous performance. In addition, Labour Force Survey (LFS) data on each of the target groups of working age, in employment and unemployment has been used to provide a baseline, and to inform our thinking in terms of scope for improvement under the new programme. For example, 1999 monitoring data revealed that 15% of beneficiaries supported on Objective 3 in England were disabled. According to the LFS, 21% of ILO unemployed people were disabled, therefore the forecast for the Active Labour Market policy field was set at the midpoint between the two, at 18%. This approach is consistent with that used to develop the OP targets.

3. A significant problem exists in that the policy fields under the new programme do not precisely relate to the previous programme. For policy fields 1 and 2 of the new programme, this was not a huge issue as similarities exist with the old Objective 3 programme. For policy field 4 we were able to use monitoring data from the previous Objective 4 programme. For policy field 3 we looked at monitoring data on national projects whose focus was on advice and guidance and data relating to both employed and unemployed beneficiaries. For policy field 5 we analysed those projects that had 98% or more female beneficiaries.

4. For forecasts on projects offering support to disabled people and projects offering childcare facilities, the only option was to use monitoring data taken from application forms under the new programme. Applications data is based on forecasts made by projects so these targets should be treated with a degree of caution.

5. For some indicators targets already exist in the OP and these have been repeated to maintain consistency. Examples of this include the % of women receiving support in all policy fields and the % of women in positive outcomes immediately on leaving in policy field 5.

6. Once forecasts for each individual policy field have been set, these are then weighted according to the allocation of resources between policy fields to derive the overall targets.

IF YOU WOULD LIKE FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE FORECASTS GIVEN IN THIS PLAN OR WOULD LIKE GUIDANCE ON HOW TO INTERPRET YOUR REGION’S RESULTS AGAINST THESE NATIONAL FORECASTS PLEASE CONTACT ADAM HARDY IN THE ESF EVALUATION TEAM, MOORFOOT, SHEFFIELD ON 0114 259 3717.

Table 1 - Forecasts for the Equal Opportunities Indicators for England (NB These forecasts to be reviewed and revised)